MES / ES 复盘（2024-02-20） | MES / ES Review
MES/ES 5 分钟复盘（中英文对照）：开盘小幅跳空回落，围绕 5546 突破确认、5504.75 的 30 分钟 measured move 目标、第 25 根双顶 L2、第 30/31 根确认前低，以及第 73 根后的 30 分钟牛旗回调。
核心观察 | Core Observation
开盘小幅跳空，然后价格开始回落。
The session opened with a small gap and then began to pull back.
这里面临的第一个问题，是如何确认价格已经突破 5546 这个位置。
The first problem was how to confirm that price had broken below the 5546 level.
5546 对应的是 30 分钟图上的 measured move 结构。如果开盘向下突破，并且第 6 根 K 线成为确认 K 线，那么后续大概率会走向 5504.75 附近。
The 5546 level corresponded to a measured-move structure on the 30-minute chart. If the market broke down after the open and bar 6 became the confirmation bar, then the market would likely move toward the 5504.75 area.
图表 | Chart
⊕ 放大
第二根反转 K 线 | Bar 2 Reversal Bar
第二根是一根反转 K 线。
Bar 2 was a reversal bar.
如果按照第二根 K 线低点下方的突破单入场，并且用第一根 K 线高点作为止损点，那么第一根高点就是一个重要止损点。
If entering with a stop order below the low of bar 2 and using the high of bar 1 as the stop, then the high of bar 1 became an important stop point.
原因是第一根 K 线是一根阳线，第二根 K 线是一根阴线，所以在第二根低点下方卖出时，第一根高点对这笔空头交易有更明确的风险定义意义。
The reason is that bar 1 was a bull bar and bar 2 was a bear bar, so selling below the low of bar 2 made the high of bar 1 a clearer risk-definition point for the short trade.
5517 的 1 倍风险目标 | One-Times Risk Target Near 5517
按照这个入场和止损计算，这笔交易的 1 倍风险目标位在 5517 附近。
Using that entry and stop, the one-times risk target for the trade was near 5517.
在轻微波动之后，行情在第 9 根 K 线到达了这个位置。
After some small fluctuations, price reached that level around bar 9.
这说明第二根低点突破入场本身已经完成了一个合理的短线目标。
This means that the entry below bar 2 had already completed a reasonable short-term objective.
第 14 根双底与第 17 根反弹确认 | Bar 14 Double Bottom and Bar 17 Bounce Confirmation
第 14 根 K 线附近出现了双底形态。
A double-bottom pattern appeared around bar 14.
我认为第 17 根 K 线确认了市场开始反弹。
I read bar 17 as the confirmation that the market had started to bounce.
但是这里的问题在于，来自小级别的 measured move 目标位，远比 50% 回调位和 EMA 均线位置更高。
The problem was that the measured-move target from the smaller timeframe was much higher than both the 50% pullback level and the EMA area.
因此，这里没有办法合理加仓。
Therefore, there was no reasonable way to add to the position there.
第 25 根双顶 L2 与再突破 | Bar 25 Double Top L2 and Renewed Breakout
第 25 根 K 线形成了双顶 L2 形态。
Bar 25 formed a double-top L2 pattern.
如果切到 1 分钟图看，这里的向下突破会非常明显。
On the 1-minute chart, the downside breakout at this point would be very clear.
第 25 根 K 线的最低点，是第一个次级别止盈点。
The low of bar 25 was the first lower-timeframe profit-taking point.
随后第 27 根 K 线再次向下突破。
Then bar 27 broke down again.
第 30 与第 31 根确认前低 | Bars 30 and 31 Confirming the Prior Low
第 27 根再次突破之后，第 30 根和后面的第 31 根 K 线确认突破了前期低点 5515。
After the renewed breakout from bar 27, bar 30 and then bar 31 confirmed the break below the prior low at 5515.
这样基本上可以确认，下方目标位置就是 5504 附近。
At that point, the downside objective could basically be confirmed as the 5504 area.
这里和开盘时的 30 分钟 measured move 目标一致，所以第 30 根和第 31 根的确认非常关键。
This aligned with the 30-minute measured-move target from the opening structure, so the confirmation from bars 30 and 31 was very important.
5504 目标后的 30 分钟牛旗 | 30-Minute Bull Flag After the 5504 Target
空头到达 5504 附近之后，市场形成了一个 30 分钟级别的牛旗回调。
After bears reached the 5504 area, the market formed a bull-flag pullback on the 30-minute chart.
这个回调反弹到前期高点附近后，在第 73 根 K 线迎来了再次向下突破。
After that pullback rallied back near the prior high, bar 73 produced another downside breakout.
但是这一次向下突破，只是到达 1 倍 measured move 后就宣告结束。
However, this downside breakout ended once it reached the one-times measured-move objective.
复盘结论 | Review Takeaways
- 5546 是开盘后需要确认的关键突破位。
- 5546 was the key breakout level that needed confirmation after the open.
- 如果第 6 根 K 线确认向下突破，那么 30 分钟图 measured move 目标指向 5504.75。
- If bar 6 confirmed the downside breakout, the 30-minute measured-move target pointed toward 5504.75.
- 第二根 K 线是一根反转 K 线，可以用第二根低点下方的突破单作为空头入场。
- Bar 2 was a reversal bar, and a stop entry below its low could be used as a short entry.
- 以第一根高点为止损时，1 倍风险目标在 5517 附近，并在第 9 根 K 线到达。
- With the high of bar 1 as the stop, the one-times risk target was near 5517 and was reached around bar 9.
- 第 14 根附近出现双底，第 17 根确认反弹，但小级别 measured move 目标太高，无法在 50% 回调和 EMA 附近合理加仓。
- A double bottom appeared around bar 14 and bar 17 confirmed the bounce, but the smaller-timeframe measured-move target was too high to justify adding near the 50% pullback and EMA area.
- 第 25 根是双顶 L2，1 分钟图上的向下突破更清晰；第 25 根最低点是第一个次级别止盈点。
- Bar 25 was a double-top L2, and the downside breakout was clearer on the 1-minute chart; the low of bar 25 was the first lower-timeframe profit-taking point.
- 第 27 根再次突破后，第 30 根和第 31 根确认跌破前低 5515，使 5504 附近目标基本成立。
- After bar 27 broke down again, bars 30 and 31 confirmed the break below the prior low at 5515, making the 5504 area the effective target.
- 到达 5504 后形成 30 分钟牛旗回调，第 73 根再次向下突破，但只完成 1 倍 measured move。
- After reaching 5504, the market formed a 30-minute bull-flag pullback; bar 73 broke down again, but that move only completed a one-times measured move.