价格行为学视频笔记 22：主要趋势反转 MTR | Price Action Video Notes 22: Major Trend Reversal
MTR 的核心条件、次级别反转、EMA20 测试与后续入场方式。
核心思路 | Core Idea
MTR 通常先表现为次级别反转。
A major trend reversal often begins as a smaller-timeframe reversal.
如果这个次级别反转足够强，尤其是在市场完成一次有力度的测试之后，它就可能引发主趋势级别的反转。
If that smaller reversal is strong enough, especially after a meaningful test, it can develop into a reversal of the main trend.
这就是 MTR 的核心思路：先看到局部力量变化，再判断它是否足以改变更大结构。
The core idea is to first detect local strength changing, then decide whether it is strong enough to alter the larger structure.
概率与执行 | Probability and Execution
MTR 大约有 40% 的概率发展成 1:2 风险收益比的交易。
An MTR has roughly a 40% chance of becoming a trade with a 1:2 risk-reward outcome.
但它经常需要多次尝试，并不容易一次成功。
However, it often takes multiple attempts and does not usually work perfectly on the first try.
因此，交易 MTR 时不能只看“是否出现反转信号”，还要看后续跟随是否足够强。
So trading an MTR is not only about spotting a reversal signal; the follow-through must also be strong enough.
EMA20 与后续入场 | EMA20 and Follow-Up Entries
如果 MTR 之前的反转比较无力，甚至没有突破 EMA20，那么后续可能需要通过 HL 或 LH 来追踪入场。
If the reversal attempt before the MTR is weak and does not even break the EMA20, later entries may need to wait for a higher low or lower high.
如果之前的反转足够强，那么 LL 或 HH 也可能成为可以追入的位置。
If the earlier reversal is strong enough, a lower low or higher high can also become a valid follow-up entry point.
EMA20 往往是成功率较高的参考位置，因为它能帮助判断反转是否已经获得结构性跟随。
The EMA20 is often a useful reference because it helps judge whether the reversal has gained structural follow-through.
数量条件 | Bar Count Requirement
MTR 的一个决定因素是 K 线数量。
One key requirement for an MTR is the number of bars involved.
如果 K 线数量足够，市场才有可能形成真正的 MTR。
Only when enough bars are involved can the market form a real major trend reversal.
如果数量不够，就不应轻易把它定义为 MTR。
If the bar count is insufficient, it should not be labeled as an MTR too quickly.